Price analysis 9/26: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, MATIC, SHIB
Bitcoin and altcoins appear to be ignoring the headline of the U.S. dollar index soaring to a 20-year high as the British pound plummets to a record-low against DXY.
The United Kingdom is in focus following the British pound’s fall to a new all-time low against the United States dollar. The sell-off was triggered by the aggressive tax cuts announced by Prime Minister Liz Truss’s government. The 10-year gilt yields have soared by 131 basis points in September, on track for its biggest monthly increase since 1957, according to Reuters.
The currency crisis and the soaring U.S dollar index (DXY) may not be good news for U.S. equities and the cryptocurrency markets. A ray of hope for Bitcoin (BTC) investors is that the pace of decline has slowed down in the past few days and the June low has not yet been re-tested.
That could be because Bitcoin’s long-term investors do not seem to be panicking. Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that Bitcoin’s Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, which gives more weightage to coins dormant for a long time, hit a new low. This indicates that coins held for the long-term “are the most dormant they have ever been.”
Could Bitcoin and altcoins continue their short-term outperformance? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
The bulls continue to defend the $18,626 to $17,622 support zone with all their might. This is a positive sign as it shows that buyers are accumulating on dips to the support zone.
The price rebounded off the support zone on Sept. 26 and the bulls will attempt to push the BTC/USDT pair above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($19,653). A close above this overhead resistance will be the first indication of strength. The pair could then rise to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($20,960).
The bears are likely to pose a strong challenge in the zone between the 50-day SMA and $22,799. Buyers will have to thrust the price above this zone to clear the path for a possible rally to $25,211.
This positive view could be invalidated if the price turns down from the moving averages and breaks below $17,622. That could signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend.
Ether (ETH) has been trading inside a tight range of $1,262 and $1,360 for the past three days. This suggests indecision among the bulls and the bears.
If bulls thrust the price above $1,360, the ETH/USDT pair could rally to the 20-day EMA ($1,430). This is an important level to watch out for because a break above it will suggest that the bears may be losing their grip. The pair could then rally to the resistance line of the descending channel.
Contrarily, if the price turns down from $1,360 or the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will then again try to sink the price to the support line of the channel.
Buyers pushed BNB above the 20-day EMA ($276) on Sept. 24 and 25 but they could not sustain the higher levels. The price formed a Doji candlestick pattern on Sept. 25, indicating that traders are undecided about the next move.
However, as the price has been trading close to the 20-day EMA for the past few days, it improves the prospects of a rally to the resistance line of the descending channel.
This level may witness aggressive selling by the bears but if bulls do not allow the price to break below the 20-day EMA, the BNB/USDT could break above the 50-day SMA ($289). Such a move could suggest a potential trend change in the near term.
If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA or the resistance line of the channel, the bears will try to pull the pair to the strong support at $258.
XRP surged to $0.56 on Sept. 23 when profit-booking set in. The bulls tried to resume the up-move on Sept. 25 but the long wick on the candlestick shows selling on intraday rallies.
The XRP/USDT pair could next drop to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.44. If the price rebounds off this level, the bulls will make one more attempt to push the price above $0.56 and resume the up-move to $0.66.
Conversely, if the price breaks below $0.44, the pair could drop to the breakout level of $0.41. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is also near $0.41; hence, the bulls are likely to defend this support aggressively.
Cardano (ADA) soared above the 20-day EMA ($0.46) on Sept. 23 but the bulls could not pierce the 50-day SMA ($0.48). The long wick on the day’s candlestick suggests that bears are active at higher levels.
Buyers again tried to push the price back above the 20-day EMA on Sept. 24 and 25 but the bears held their ground. That has pulled the price to the uptrend line. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if they fail to do that, the ADA/USDT pair could slump to the vital support at $0.40.
Conversely, if the price rebounds off the uptrend line, the bulls will again try to drive the pair above the downtrend line. If they manage to do that, the pair could jump to $0.52.
Solana (SOL) broke and closed above the 20-day EMA ($33) on Sept. 23 but the bulls could not build upon this strength. The failure to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($35) attracted selling on Sept. 24. That pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA on Sept. 25.
The bulls have not yet given up and are trying to push the price back above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA. The bulls will have to surpass this obstacle to set the stage for a possible rally to $39.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the moving averages, it will suggest that bears are in no mood to relent. That could heighten the risk of a break below $30. If that happens, the pair could retest the important support at $26.
Dogecoin (DOGE) broke and closed above the 20-day EMA ($0.06) on Sept. 23, which is the first sign that the selling pressure could be reducing.
Buyers maintained their momentum and propelled the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.07) on Sept. 24 but could not sustain the higher levels. This shows that the bears have not yet given up and are selling on rallies.
The price dipped back to the 20-day EMA on Sept. 25 but a minor positive is that the bulls are trying to defend this level. If bulls flip this level into support, the pair could rally to $0.08.
Alternatively, if the price continues lower and breaks below the strong support, the DOGE/USDT pair could retest the June low at $0.05.
Related: Cardano bulls run out of steam after Vasil hard fork — 40% ADA price crash in play
Polkadot (DOT) once again bounced off the critical support at $6 on Sept. 26, suggesting that bulls are defending this level aggressively. The price could jump to the 20-day EMA ($6.74) where the bears will try to stall the recovery.
If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will increase the likelihood of a break below the support at $6. If that happens, the selling could pick up momentum and the DOT/USDT pair could resume the downtrend. The pair could then slide to $4.
If bulls want to prevent this fall, they will have to quickly push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then rally to the overhead resistance zone between the 50-day SMA ($7.48) and $8. A break and close above the zone could open the doors for a possible rally to $9.17 and then $10.
Polygon’s (MATIC) relief rally stalled near the 20-day EMA ($0.79) on Sept. 23, indicating that bears continue to sell on minor rallies. The price has dipped to the strong support at $0.72 where buyers are likely to step in to arrest the decline.
A strong bounce off the current level will suggest accumulation near $0.72. The bulls will then make another attempt to drive the price above the 20-day EMA. If they can pull it off, the MATIC/USDT pair could climb to the 50-day SMA ($0.84) and then to $0.94.
Instead, if the price turns down and breaks below the $0.72 to $0.69 support zone, it will indicate that the $0.72 to $1.05 range has resolved to the downside. That could pull the pair down to $0.62 and after that to $0.52.
The bulls propelled Shiba Inu (SHIB) above the 20-day EMA ($0.000011) on Sept. 24 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears continue to sell at higher levels.
The bears will attempt to sink the price to the immediate support at $0.000010. This level has acted as a strong support previously; hence, the bulls are likely to defend it with vigor.
Buyers will have to push the price above the moving averages to suggest that the selling pressure could be reducing. The SHIB/USDT pair could then rise to $0.000014 where the bears may again mount a strong resistance. If bulls overcome this barrier, the pair could rise to $0.000018.
On the downside, a break below $0.000010 could intensify selling and the pair could slide to the crucial support at $0.000007.
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